Elon Could Change Los Angeles Real Estate.
Something happened in Austin this week that looks small today.
It may not look small five years from now.
Tesla has begun carrying paying passengers in its purpose-built Cybercab.
There is no driver.
There is no steering wheel.
There are no pedals.
Customers in Austin can request one through Tesla’s Robotaxi app. The rollout is still tiny only 45 Cybercabs were registered in Texas as of launch but this is no longer a prototype on a closed course.
Elon Musk summed up where he thinks this is going:
“The future of transport.”
In another post, he went further:
“We are indeed entering a literal golden era of transport.”
That sounds like Musk being Musk.
Then I looked at the numbers.
$92 VS. $200
Early Cybercab rider Sawyer Merritt said he spent $92.51 for three hours of Cybercab rides.
His estimate for the same travel on Uber:
$200.
Another comparison started circulating.
One trip showed:
Cybercab: $19.35
Uber: $34.98
That’s roughly 45% less on that ride.
Dealroom also cited a shorter trip: $9.65 for Cybercab versus $21 for Uber including tip.
These are snapshots not proof of what Cybercab will cost at scale.
But they make the economics worth watching.
The question is not whether Cybercab can beat Uber on one ride.
The question is:
WHAT HAPPENS IF A $15 UBER BECOMES $5?
We’re not there yet.
Take the driver out of the car and you remove one of the biggest costs in ride-hailing.
What happens if a $15 ride becomes $10?
Then $7?
Eventually $5?
At some point Cybercab is not just competing with Uber.
It’s competing with owning a car.
That’s when this becomes a Los Angeles real estate story.
THE $1,000-A-MONTH CAR
Think about what a car can cost in Los Angeles.
Maybe:
$300-500 a month for the lease or payment.
$150-300 for parking.
$150–$250 for insurance.
$100–$300 for gas or charging.
Then registration.
Maintenance.
Tires.
Repairs.
That $500 car can become $800–$1,200 a month.
Now imagine autonomous rides cheap enough that someone spends a fraction of that to get around.
That’s more than convenience.
That’s deflation.
Hundreds of dollars a month back in someone’s pocket without a raise.
For a renter in Los Angeles, that’s real money.
And that’s before what it could do for the landlord.
NOW THINK ABOUT THE APARTMENT BUILDING
This is where the story gets bigger.
Parking is expensive to build in Los Angeles.
Underground parking can cost tens of thousands of dollars per space.
Take a 100-unit apartment project.
If underground parking costs roughly $70,000 per space, 100 spaces means:
$7 MILLION
On places for cars to sit.
That’s before land, ramps, and drive aisles.
For decades, we’ve designed apartments around the idea that almost every household needs its own car.
What if that changes?
WHAT IF THE BUILDING HAS 30 CYBERCABS?
I’ve been thinking about this as an apartment owner and developer.
Say I build another 100-unit project in Los Angeles.
Instead of designing around 100 or 150 privately owned cars, what if residents had access to 20 or 30 autonomous vehicles?
The tenant comes downstairs.
Opens an app.
A car pulls around.
Work.
Dinner.
The gym.
Whole Foods.
The airport.
When they’re done, the car goes to the next resident.
Maybe the building leases the Cybercabs.
Maybe an outside company owns them.
Maybe rides are included in rent.
Maybe the cars serve the public when residents aren’t using them and make money for the owner.
I don’t know the exact model.
But this caught my attention:
Tesla is already asking people whether they want to buy Cybercab fleets and develop “mobility hubs and infrastructure” for its Robotaxi network. Cybercabs aren’t for sale to the public yet. Tesla is clearly thinking about third-party fleet ownership.
An apartment building with its own mobility fleet suddenly doesn’t sound crazy.
For Transparency on their website I requested a big batch of them as an investment.
THE NEXT GREAT APARTMENT AMENITY MAY BE TRANSPORTATION
Developers spend a lot competing for tenants.
Pools.
Gyms.
Rooftops.
Lounges.
Wi-Fi.
What if one of the best amenities becomes:
MOBILITY.
Imagine leasing an apartment and hearing:
You don’t need a car here. Transportation is included.
No $500 car payment.
No $300 parking space.
Less insurance.
No gas.
No charger.
No maintenance.
And potentially $5 or $10 rides when you need more.
That’s not just a nicer apartment.
It could lower the tenant’s cost of living.
And if the developer can cut millions in parking construction?
Both sides can win.
THEN THERE’S SAFETY
Price isn’t Tesla’s only claim.
Tesla posted this week:
“Cybercab is engineered to be the safest car on the road.”
That’s Tesla’s claim not independently proven yet.
Keep that distinction clear.
Federal regulators have opened an investigation into whether Cybercab complies with federal vehicle safety standards, especially because it has no steering wheel or brake pedals.
Tesla has to prove the safety case with data.
But think about what happens if it does.
If autonomous vehicles become cheaper and safer than human-driven cars, owning a car looks weaker again.
The question changes from:
Would you trust a car without a driver?
To:
Why would you pay more to drive yourself?
THIS REMINDS ME OF CHATGPT
When ChatGPT launched, everyone got the first trick.
You typed a question.
The computer answered.
Impressive.
That wasn’t the real story.
A few years later, AI is writing software, analyzing documents, handling customer service, making images, researching businesses, and changing how companies run.
The first use was obvious.
The second- and third-order effects were bigger.
Cybercab feels similar.
The obvious reaction today:
Look. The car drives itself.
That may end up being the least interesting part.
The real disruption starts when cheap autonomous rides change everything built around humans owning and driving cars.
What happens to Uber?
Parking garages?
Gas stations?
Auto insurance?
Dealerships?
Parking lots?
And for those of us in Los Angeles real estate:
WHAT HAPPENS TO THE APARTMENT BUILDING?
LOS ANGELES COULD BE ONE OF THE BIGGEST BENEFICIARIES
Los Angeles spent generations building around the car.
That makes this interesting here.
Land is expensive.
Construction is expensive.
Housing is expensive.
Parking is expensive.
Transportation is expensive.
Autonomous vehicles don’t solve all of that.
But if they let developers build less parking while giving residents cheaper rides, they attack two costs at once.
Lower development costs.
Lower transportation costs.
That’s powerful.
More of the building can go to what people need:
Housing.
WE’RE NOT THERE YET
There are reasons to be skeptical.
The Cybercab rollout is tiny.
Tesla has made aggressive autonomous-driving predictions before.
Regulation is a real issue.
California is not Texas.
Safety still has to be proven.
And nobody knows what Cybercab will cost once thousands—or millions—of vehicles are running.
Today Tesla’s service is limited. Waymo already runs thousands of autonomous vehicles across multiple cities.
So I’m not designing my next apartment building around Cybercabs tomorrow.
But something changed this week.
People are paying to ride in them.
The vehicle exists.
The rides exist.
The early pricing exists.
And Tesla is already asking operators about fleets and mobility hubs.
That gets my attention.
If autonomous rides become dramatically cheaper than today’s ride-hailing—and eventually cheaper than owning a car—we have to rethink more than transportation.
We have to rethink cities.
Elon Musk calls it:
“The future of transport.”
He may be right.
But for Los Angeles real estate, the bigger story could be what we no longer need to own and what developers no longer need to build when that future arrives.
And parking may only be the beginning.