For the last few years, apartment owners have been waiting for lower interest rates, higher rents and less new construction.
But one of the more interesting signals may be coming from renters themselves.
The New York Fed just found something remarkable:
In 2014, renters said there was about a 57% chance they would move within the next three years.
Today, that number is just 37%.
Rental mobility has collapsed.
Jay Parsons recently highlighted the finding, saying:
“The share of renters planning to move within 3 years has plunged.”
Why?
Buying a home is increasingly out of reach.
The New York Fed found that renters haven't suddenly stopped wanting to own homes.
About 65% still say they would prefer to own if they had the financial ability.
But their expected chance of ever becoming a homeowner has fallen from roughly 52% in 2015 to 35% in 2025.
That is changing behavior.
Renters who think they have little chance of ever owning a home report only about a 25% chance of moving within three years.
Renters who are highly confident they'll eventually own?
76%.
The message is pretty simple:
If buying a house feels impossible, staying in your apartment starts looking pretty good.
And that could be good news for apartment owners.
Longer stays can mean fewer empty units, fewer renovations between tenants, lower leasing costs and more renewals.
But renter behavior is only half the story.
The apartment construction boom is slowing.
For several years, the country built an enormous number of apartments.
Now that wave is beginning to fade.
In the second quarter of 2026, only 77,700 apartments were completed nationally, down 14% from a year earlier.
Meanwhile, renters filled 167,000 apartments.
That's more than two apartments occupied for every new apartment completed during the quarter.
And demand has now exceeded new supply for two consecutive quarters.
That's an important change.
Los Angeles may be even more interesting.
Only 666 apartments started construction in Greater Los Angeles during Q2.
One quarter earlier?
4,599.
That's an enormous drop.
Meanwhile, LA apartment sales volume during the first half of 2026 increased 47% from last year, even as the average price per unit remained down 4.7%.
So we're seeing an unusual combination:
Renters are staying longer.
Buying a house remains difficult.
Apartment demand is beating new supply.
Developers are starting fewer projects.
And investors are beginning to buy again.
But prices and rents haven't fully recovered.
So, is the apartment bottom in?
I don't think we can say that yet.
There is still plenty of new supply being absorbed. Los Angeles rents are still slightly below last year according to Colliers, and financing remains expensive.
But I do think we can say something is changing.
The interesting part of a real estate cycle isn't when everyone knows the market has recovered.
It's the period before that happens.
When prices are still down.
When investors are still nervous.
When the headlines still aren't great.
But the underlying numbers quietly begin moving in the other direction.
We may be entering that period now.
My Take
I wouldn't call the apartment bottom.
But I am watching it for it
Because renters aren't leaving, construction is slowing, and demand is beginning to outrun new supply.
And sometimes, the bottom only becomes obvious after you've already passed it.
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