What an Operator Sees
The lesson here is not that the original buyer was foolish or made a bad decision based on what was known in 2018.
Nobody buying at that time could fully predict COVID, the collapse of the office market, rapidly rising interest rates or Downtown Los Angeles’ continued deterioration.
I do not judge the investor. I want to study what happened to the investment. What I can learn and how we can reduce risk and improve IRR.
The building was purchased for $13 million, renovated, fully leased and held for more than eight years. It later sold for $5 million—a recorded price decline of $8 million.
The full economic result is more complicated. Rental income may have offset part of the loss, while renovation costs, financing, taxes, insurance, leasing expenses and commissions may have increased it.
What this sale clearly demonstrates is how much timing and basis matter. You can't just buy and think because you will hold it for a long time that you will come ahead. I learned this a few times myself when I could have sold and didn't.
The prior owner entered at $376 per square foot. The new buyer entered at $145 per square foot with only 20% leverage.
Same building. Completely different basis. Completely different risk.
The lesson is not that investors should stop taking risks. It is that the purchase price is only the beginning. When an asset requires renovations, leasing costs and years of expensive carry, the downside can become much larger than the decline visible in public records.
There is no price where you “can’t lose.”
There are only prices that give you a larger margin for error.
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